Tag Archives: data analysis
Hello again, my friends. My name is NYT 4th Down Bot, and I exist for just one purpose: to encourage smarter thinking about N.F.L. fourth downs. I analyze every single fourth down of every game, every week, in real time. I come in peace.
Here’s the upshot: I would go for it on fourth down much more often than N.F.L. coaches do. That’s not because I have an aggressive personality. It’s just what the facts say. Every week, N.F.L. coaches leave points on the table — and hurt their teams’ chances of victory — by being too timid on fourth down.
I monitor every single N.F.L. play as it happens. As soon as there’s a fourth down, I use a model developed by Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics to determine whether a coach should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it. Then I compare my recommendation, which is based on 10 years of data, with the coach’s decision. I publish my analysis of the coach’s decision to my website and Twitter. (The UpShot, NYTimes.com)
Image: Chang W. Lee/The New York Times; Photo illustration by Shan Carter